050808

World's largest mining company and Australia's No. 1 oil producer, dropped as copper plunged to the lowest in six months indicated something might be coming as i always hear, saw articles related to economy.

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The stockpiles in copper follow a eight year cycle. For approximately four years the stockpile deplete to very low inventory and then it rises back to new record highs. The cycles lead the inverse copper price cycles by a year or so. In early 2003 copper stockpile peaked and then in early 2006 it got depleted to lowest levels. The cycle is systematic since 1920. It seems this time also it is no different.
Copper predicts the world economy well in advance. Interestingly, every time copper stockpiles make tops, these are new higher highs. For example the stockpile high in 2003 was higher than in 1999-2000 and that in turn was higher than in 1993. This really means the higher copper price brings in enormous amount of copper in recycling and copper stockpiles is bigger than ever.
If that happens, copper can fall below $1.00 per pound. What is more important is that fall in copper price is always accompanied with global recessions. The stockpiles go low during the economic boom and go high during the economic slowdown. The cyclic behavior of copper stockpile and the price show that economic recession or depression may be very near.
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I am a little caution in todays market as normally i would look out for counters for cherry picking but the drop in copper price worries me.

Tonight will slightly be predictable as many feel the rate will stay unchange at 2% but well it might surprise us if it change.

Shipping counter has been downgraded to hold and sell, popular blue chip cosco and yang zi jiang hit new 52wk low, reason concern on slow growth and supply plentiful. It is extremely funny these analyst few weeks back gave out-perform rating to these counter for target price 12month and few weeks later downgrade it? Perhaps anyone could enlighten me how one view changes so fast?