Lehman Files Biggest Bankruptcy as Suitors Balk; Shares Plunge
By Yalman Onaran and Christopher Scinta
Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank, succumbed to the subprime mortgage crisis it helped create in the biggest bankruptcy filing in history
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Market has been extremely bearish as lehman receive no help from any large financial instituition. I remain cautious as we enter 160908 for FOMC. Possible rebound for the oversold index.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Monday, September 1, 2008
010908
1 week has pass since last post, did not enter any position because Cosco moves faster than i expected, que at 2.06 go 2.09 que at 2.12 go 2.14... etcetc i expect more upside for Cosco as seen today shipping counter has been battered heavily on concern for hurrican in US but Cosco remain resilient. Keep my finger cross will not be entering any position soon.
more news for China policy
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China's Spending to Ward Off Olympic `Curse' May Help Buoy Asia
By Kevin Hamlin
Enlarge Image/Details
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- China's leaders are planning tax cuts and a public-works spending spree to make sure their economy's growth isn't doused along with the Olympic flame.
Ten of 11 Summer Olympics host nations analyzed by Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Jen saw growth and investment slump in the year following the games; the only exception in his study, which stretches back to 1956, was the U.S. in 1996. Government officials in China, whose expansion was already slowing before the Beijing games ended last month, are determined to avoid what Jen calls the ``Olympic Curse.''
That would provide a welcome boost for some of China's Asian neighbors, including Korea and Taiwan, as well as for commodity producers from Australia to Brazil whose economies are threatened by faltering demand from the U.S., Japan and Europe.
``The Chinese authorities will do whatever they can to avoid a sharp slowdown,'' says Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors, which manages about $108 billion. ``China's economy will be a key pillar of strength for Asia.''
China has already eased lending restrictions and halted an appreciation of the yuan that was starting to pinch exports. Now, after four straight quarters of decelerating gross domestic product growth, the government is considering a fiscal stimulus of as much as 400 billion yuan ($58 billion), according to economists and reports in domestic news media.
Tax Cuts and Spending
A plan awaiting approval from the State Council and the National People's Congress includes 220 billion yuan of spending and 150 billion yuan of tax cuts, the Beijing-based Economic Observer newspaper reported last week.
China has tripled railway spending this year to 300 billion yuan. The current five-year plan, which runs through 2010, calls for investing almost 4.8 trillion yuan on power stations, waterways, roads and other infrastructure projects -- more than the combined output of Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Reconstruction after May's Sichuan earthquake could cost another 1 trillion yuan, the government says.
``As the Chinese economy moderates, official priorities are tilting towards maintaining growth and employment,'' says Jing Ulrich, chairwoman of China equities at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong. ``China's infrastructure spending could even accelerate after the games.''
China might go beyond fiscal stimulus. The People's Bank of China said Aug. 15 it would ``fine-tune'' monetary policy to cushion the economy as overseas demand weakens. Frank Gong, head of China research at JPMorgan, expects the central bank to reduce the portion of deposits banks are required to hold as reserves by 2.5 percentage points, to 15 percent, by next year.
`Foot Off the Brake'
China's inflation rate ``is coming down, so they have got potential to take their foot off the brake and ease up on monetary policy,'' AMP's Oliver says. The rate peaked at 8.7 percent in February and was 6.3 percent in July.
China's growth slowed to a 10.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter after a recent high of 12.6 percent in the second quarter of 2007. Some economists say China's expansion -- still the fastest among the world's 20 biggest economies -- remains strong enough to maintain its momentum without new spending or monetary easing. ``But it's an uncertain world situation, so a month or two from now, those plans may look very smart,'' says David Dollar, the World Bank's director for China.
About 20,000 Hong Kong-owned businesses will close or relocate from China's nearby Guangdong province by the end of this year, in part because of slowing export demand, according to the Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprises Association.
`Quite Nervous' Authorities
In a country where the number of new job-seekers each year exceeds the number of jobs created by 20 million, a decline in economic growth to even 8 percent would be tantamount to a recession, says Tao Dong, chief Asia economist with Credit Suisse AG in Hong Kong. Anything ``below 9 percent would make the authorities quite nervous,'' he says.
That figure is significant for China's neighbors as well. For every 1 percentage point that China increases its growth rate, the rest of Asia will be boosted by half that, says Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong.
Among countries with the most at stake are Taiwan, which shipped almost 36 percent of its total exports to China last year; South Korea, which sent 25 percent; and Japan, which shipped 19 percent, according to UBS AG.
Replacing the U.S.
Japan, whose economy shrank at an annual rate of 2.4 percent last quarter, would be even worse off without strong demand from China, which replaced the U.S. as Japan's biggest customer in July. Komatsu Ltd., Japan's largest maker of earthmovers, reported in July that sales in China gained 37 percent in the quarter, while revenue from North and South America declined.
``With Europe and the U.S. starting to struggle, and Asia starting to buckle, you don't want all engines sputtering at the same time,'' says Rob Subbaraman, chief Asia economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. ``It will be more and more helpful if China can keep its economy on an even keel.''
China's spending will also help demand for commodities -- from iron ore mined in Australia to copper produced in Chile. China is the world's biggest consumer of coal, steel, aluminum, iron ore, nickel ore, copper and natural rubber.
``Raw-materials demand in China is going to be very strong for decades to come,'' Marius Kloppers, chief executive officer of BHP Billiton Ltd., said Aug. 18. China's appetite for steel will double by 2015, said Kloppers, whose Melbourne-based firm is the world's biggest mining company.
`Aggressive' Price Gains
Price gains for copper through 2010 will be ``aggressive'' because of limited supplies and Chinese demand, Citigroup said in an Aug. 18 report.
As one of the last remaining engines of growth, China may help keep the global economy from slipping into its first recession since 2001-2002. Economists at the International Monetary Fund deem anything less than a 3 percent world growth rate as a global recession.
``Continued robust, albeit slowing, growth in China and the rest of the emerging markets is a major driver of our view that the world economy will grow by a healthy 3.6 percent next year after 3.9 percent in 2008,'' said Binit Patel, international economist with Goldman Sachs in London, in an Aug. 21 report.
China has ample funds to pay for pro-growth policies, with outstanding debt of only 15.7 percent of GDP, compared with 75 percent in India, a budget surplus and the world's largest currency reserves, at $1.8 trillion.
``This is one country that's been saving during the boom time,'' says the World Bank's Dollar. ``If exports drop off sharply and consumers get cautious, they can come in very quickly with government spending or tax reductions.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing on khamlin@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 31, 2008 12:00 EDT
more news for China policy
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
China's Spending to Ward Off Olympic `Curse' May Help Buoy Asia
By Kevin Hamlin
Enlarge Image/Details
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- China's leaders are planning tax cuts and a public-works spending spree to make sure their economy's growth isn't doused along with the Olympic flame.
Ten of 11 Summer Olympics host nations analyzed by Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Jen saw growth and investment slump in the year following the games; the only exception in his study, which stretches back to 1956, was the U.S. in 1996. Government officials in China, whose expansion was already slowing before the Beijing games ended last month, are determined to avoid what Jen calls the ``Olympic Curse.''
That would provide a welcome boost for some of China's Asian neighbors, including Korea and Taiwan, as well as for commodity producers from Australia to Brazil whose economies are threatened by faltering demand from the U.S., Japan and Europe.
``The Chinese authorities will do whatever they can to avoid a sharp slowdown,'' says Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors, which manages about $108 billion. ``China's economy will be a key pillar of strength for Asia.''
China has already eased lending restrictions and halted an appreciation of the yuan that was starting to pinch exports. Now, after four straight quarters of decelerating gross domestic product growth, the government is considering a fiscal stimulus of as much as 400 billion yuan ($58 billion), according to economists and reports in domestic news media.
Tax Cuts and Spending
A plan awaiting approval from the State Council and the National People's Congress includes 220 billion yuan of spending and 150 billion yuan of tax cuts, the Beijing-based Economic Observer newspaper reported last week.
China has tripled railway spending this year to 300 billion yuan. The current five-year plan, which runs through 2010, calls for investing almost 4.8 trillion yuan on power stations, waterways, roads and other infrastructure projects -- more than the combined output of Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Reconstruction after May's Sichuan earthquake could cost another 1 trillion yuan, the government says.
``As the Chinese economy moderates, official priorities are tilting towards maintaining growth and employment,'' says Jing Ulrich, chairwoman of China equities at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong. ``China's infrastructure spending could even accelerate after the games.''
China might go beyond fiscal stimulus. The People's Bank of China said Aug. 15 it would ``fine-tune'' monetary policy to cushion the economy as overseas demand weakens. Frank Gong, head of China research at JPMorgan, expects the central bank to reduce the portion of deposits banks are required to hold as reserves by 2.5 percentage points, to 15 percent, by next year.
`Foot Off the Brake'
China's inflation rate ``is coming down, so they have got potential to take their foot off the brake and ease up on monetary policy,'' AMP's Oliver says. The rate peaked at 8.7 percent in February and was 6.3 percent in July.
China's growth slowed to a 10.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter after a recent high of 12.6 percent in the second quarter of 2007. Some economists say China's expansion -- still the fastest among the world's 20 biggest economies -- remains strong enough to maintain its momentum without new spending or monetary easing. ``But it's an uncertain world situation, so a month or two from now, those plans may look very smart,'' says David Dollar, the World Bank's director for China.
About 20,000 Hong Kong-owned businesses will close or relocate from China's nearby Guangdong province by the end of this year, in part because of slowing export demand, according to the Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprises Association.
`Quite Nervous' Authorities
In a country where the number of new job-seekers each year exceeds the number of jobs created by 20 million, a decline in economic growth to even 8 percent would be tantamount to a recession, says Tao Dong, chief Asia economist with Credit Suisse AG in Hong Kong. Anything ``below 9 percent would make the authorities quite nervous,'' he says.
That figure is significant for China's neighbors as well. For every 1 percentage point that China increases its growth rate, the rest of Asia will be boosted by half that, says Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong.
Among countries with the most at stake are Taiwan, which shipped almost 36 percent of its total exports to China last year; South Korea, which sent 25 percent; and Japan, which shipped 19 percent, according to UBS AG.
Replacing the U.S.
Japan, whose economy shrank at an annual rate of 2.4 percent last quarter, would be even worse off without strong demand from China, which replaced the U.S. as Japan's biggest customer in July. Komatsu Ltd., Japan's largest maker of earthmovers, reported in July that sales in China gained 37 percent in the quarter, while revenue from North and South America declined.
``With Europe and the U.S. starting to struggle, and Asia starting to buckle, you don't want all engines sputtering at the same time,'' says Rob Subbaraman, chief Asia economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. ``It will be more and more helpful if China can keep its economy on an even keel.''
China's spending will also help demand for commodities -- from iron ore mined in Australia to copper produced in Chile. China is the world's biggest consumer of coal, steel, aluminum, iron ore, nickel ore, copper and natural rubber.
``Raw-materials demand in China is going to be very strong for decades to come,'' Marius Kloppers, chief executive officer of BHP Billiton Ltd., said Aug. 18. China's appetite for steel will double by 2015, said Kloppers, whose Melbourne-based firm is the world's biggest mining company.
`Aggressive' Price Gains
Price gains for copper through 2010 will be ``aggressive'' because of limited supplies and Chinese demand, Citigroup said in an Aug. 18 report.
As one of the last remaining engines of growth, China may help keep the global economy from slipping into its first recession since 2001-2002. Economists at the International Monetary Fund deem anything less than a 3 percent world growth rate as a global recession.
``Continued robust, albeit slowing, growth in China and the rest of the emerging markets is a major driver of our view that the world economy will grow by a healthy 3.6 percent next year after 3.9 percent in 2008,'' said Binit Patel, international economist with Goldman Sachs in London, in an Aug. 21 report.
China has ample funds to pay for pro-growth policies, with outstanding debt of only 15.7 percent of GDP, compared with 75 percent in India, a budget surplus and the world's largest currency reserves, at $1.8 trillion.
``This is one country that's been saving during the boom time,'' says the World Bank's Dollar. ``If exports drop off sharply and consumers get cautious, they can come in very quickly with government spending or tax reductions.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing on khamlin@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 31, 2008 12:00 EDT
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
260808
Rebound catalyst spotted, China S share has fallen sharpen over the past few months despite olympic being held successfully. The mentality of people had been thinking China will not let its exchange fall sharply thus when olympic started, chinese government didnt offered up any fiscal and monetary policy to boost up the economy.
Now recently report by JP morgan mentioned Chinese gov may provide billions of stimulus boost to the economy, but yet nothing had been done, SSE rise for 1 day and drop sharply the next. As days goes by the news of stimulus boost seems to be true, but speculation will not be encourage, shall wait till the rumour proves true and have a bear rally for badly beaten s shares.
STI support at 2680, rebound is expected but will need a right catalyst for a bear rally market. If STI closes below 2660 rebound invalid. Key economy indication in US had worsen, buffet predicted the market to be much worst of in next 5 months.
There will be 3 counters that i will be entering the market if stimulus boost proves to be true. Short term trade,
China Hongx
COSCO
Ferrochina
Now recently report by JP morgan mentioned Chinese gov may provide billions of stimulus boost to the economy, but yet nothing had been done, SSE rise for 1 day and drop sharply the next. As days goes by the news of stimulus boost seems to be true, but speculation will not be encourage, shall wait till the rumour proves true and have a bear rally for badly beaten s shares.
STI support at 2680, rebound is expected but will need a right catalyst for a bear rally market. If STI closes below 2660 rebound invalid. Key economy indication in US had worsen, buffet predicted the market to be much worst of in next 5 months.
There will be 3 counters that i will be entering the market if stimulus boost proves to be true. Short term trade,
China Hongx
COSCO
Ferrochina
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Warren Buffet
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/22/news/economy/buffett.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008082209
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Listen to the most successful man on earth, cant be wrong. He mention ripple effect from credit crunch is happening and it is going to cause problem in the economy. In his outlook He's confident the nation will be doing better five years from now, Buffett said, but the economy could be worse five months from now
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Listen to the most successful man on earth, cant be wrong. He mention ripple effect from credit crunch is happening and it is going to cause problem in the economy. In his outlook He's confident the nation will be doing better five years from now, Buffett said, but the economy could be worse five months from now
Friday, August 22, 2008
220808
Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. slowdown will deepen in the second half of the year as housing continues to slump and unemployment rises, according to a measure designed to predict the economy's direction.
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell 0.7 percent in July, more than triple the drop forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Separate reports showed the number of Americans collecting unemployment insurance remained near a five- year high last week and manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank for a ninth straight month.
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell 0.7 percent in July, more than triple the drop forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Separate reports showed the number of Americans collecting unemployment insurance remained near a five- year high last week and manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank for a ninth straight month.
Swiber
Again my interest in the counter ignited, just at evening swiber announce.
SWIBER JOINS HANDS WITH RAWABI HOLDING OF SAUDI ARABIA TO EXPAND OFFSHORE BUSINESS IN GULF COOPERATION COUNTRIES.
Another reason is Crude oil advanced more than $6 after the signing yesterday of a missile-shield agreement between the U.S. and Poland bolstered concern that Russia may disrupt the flow of oil.
Will observe swiber during opening. Most likely even if STI is down swiber will still move.
SWIBER JOINS HANDS WITH RAWABI HOLDING OF SAUDI ARABIA TO EXPAND OFFSHORE BUSINESS IN GULF COOPERATION COUNTRIES.
Another reason is Crude oil advanced more than $6 after the signing yesterday of a missile-shield agreement between the U.S. and Poland bolstered concern that Russia may disrupt the flow of oil.
Will observe swiber during opening. Most likely even if STI is down swiber will still move.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
180808
STI looks very very weak, possible to retest march low by next week or it is also possible in fundamental a positive outlook will trigger a rebound. Currently on no contra position added. But i did invest man wah on its company management it for short-mid term during oil correction. Cosco and YZJ had been badly oversold, very attractive esp to cosco... on technical rebound- the harder you fall, the higher u rebound. Will observe for a few more day, hope to take a ride in Cosco.
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