Rebound catalyst spotted, China S share has fallen sharpen over the past few months despite olympic being held successfully. The mentality of people had been thinking China will not let its exchange fall sharply thus when olympic started, chinese government didnt offered up any fiscal and monetary policy to boost up the economy.
Now recently report by JP morgan mentioned Chinese gov may provide billions of stimulus boost to the economy, but yet nothing had been done, SSE rise for 1 day and drop sharply the next. As days goes by the news of stimulus boost seems to be true, but speculation will not be encourage, shall wait till the rumour proves true and have a bear rally for badly beaten s shares.
STI support at 2680, rebound is expected but will need a right catalyst for a bear rally market. If STI closes below 2660 rebound invalid. Key economy indication in US had worsen, buffet predicted the market to be much worst of in next 5 months.
There will be 3 counters that i will be entering the market if stimulus boost proves to be true. Short term trade,
China Hongx
COSCO
Ferrochina
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Warren Buffet
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/22/news/economy/buffett.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008082209
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Listen to the most successful man on earth, cant be wrong. He mention ripple effect from credit crunch is happening and it is going to cause problem in the economy. In his outlook He's confident the nation will be doing better five years from now, Buffett said, but the economy could be worse five months from now
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Listen to the most successful man on earth, cant be wrong. He mention ripple effect from credit crunch is happening and it is going to cause problem in the economy. In his outlook He's confident the nation will be doing better five years from now, Buffett said, but the economy could be worse five months from now
Friday, August 22, 2008
220808
Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. slowdown will deepen in the second half of the year as housing continues to slump and unemployment rises, according to a measure designed to predict the economy's direction.
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell 0.7 percent in July, more than triple the drop forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Separate reports showed the number of Americans collecting unemployment insurance remained near a five- year high last week and manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank for a ninth straight month.
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell 0.7 percent in July, more than triple the drop forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Separate reports showed the number of Americans collecting unemployment insurance remained near a five- year high last week and manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank for a ninth straight month.
Swiber
Again my interest in the counter ignited, just at evening swiber announce.
SWIBER JOINS HANDS WITH RAWABI HOLDING OF SAUDI ARABIA TO EXPAND OFFSHORE BUSINESS IN GULF COOPERATION COUNTRIES.
Another reason is Crude oil advanced more than $6 after the signing yesterday of a missile-shield agreement between the U.S. and Poland bolstered concern that Russia may disrupt the flow of oil.
Will observe swiber during opening. Most likely even if STI is down swiber will still move.
SWIBER JOINS HANDS WITH RAWABI HOLDING OF SAUDI ARABIA TO EXPAND OFFSHORE BUSINESS IN GULF COOPERATION COUNTRIES.
Another reason is Crude oil advanced more than $6 after the signing yesterday of a missile-shield agreement between the U.S. and Poland bolstered concern that Russia may disrupt the flow of oil.
Will observe swiber during opening. Most likely even if STI is down swiber will still move.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
180808
STI looks very very weak, possible to retest march low by next week or it is also possible in fundamental a positive outlook will trigger a rebound. Currently on no contra position added. But i did invest man wah on its company management it for short-mid term during oil correction. Cosco and YZJ had been badly oversold, very attractive esp to cosco... on technical rebound- the harder you fall, the higher u rebound. Will observe for a few more day, hope to take a ride in Cosco.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
130808
U.S. Stocks Decline for Second Day; Deere, Macy's, Banks Fall
By Lynn Thomasson
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped for a second day as earnings reports from Deere & Co. and Macy's Inc. disappointed investors and Merrill Lynch & Co. said the contagion from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market is far from over.
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With short selling unban, Dow is unlikely to shake off its bearish trend.
By Lynn Thomasson
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped for a second day as earnings reports from Deere & Co. and Macy's Inc. disappointed investors and Merrill Lynch & Co. said the contagion from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market is far from over.
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With short selling unban, Dow is unlikely to shake off its bearish trend.
Swiber 2Q result
Swiber’s 2Q net profit rockets 258.1%
to US$22.2 million
• 2Q revenue is 82% of total revenue achieved in the entire FY2007 of US$151.2 million, while
2008 year‐to‐date revenue already surpasses FY2007’s revenue
• Strong order book totaling US$664 million as at 30 June 2008
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Good news, profit rocket 258.81%, swiber will have a technical rebound soon.
to US$22.2 million
• 2Q revenue is 82% of total revenue achieved in the entire FY2007 of US$151.2 million, while
2008 year‐to‐date revenue already surpasses FY2007’s revenue
• Strong order book totaling US$664 million as at 30 June 2008
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Good news, profit rocket 258.81%, swiber will have a technical rebound soon.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
120808
U.S. Stocks Fall on Banking Concern; JPMorgan, Goldman Retreat
By Lynn Thomasson
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for the first time in three days after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it may post more credit losses, pushing the worldwide costs for the collapse of the subprime mortgage market to more than $500 billion.
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Current market still very volatile, for STI still in downtrend. Will need good news to boost for rebound.
By Lynn Thomasson
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for the first time in three days after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it may post more credit losses, pushing the worldwide costs for the collapse of the subprime mortgage market to more than $500 billion.
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Current market still very volatile, for STI still in downtrend. Will need good news to boost for rebound.
Comparison Of Energy Related Counter
578 - KS ENERGY (SGX)
Market Capitalization (US$) 367,730K
Revenue 402,700K
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.281
P/E Ratio 7.236
Dividend Yield 2.956%
Avg. Daily Share Volume (last 5 days) 522,800
AK3 - SWIBER HOLDINGS (SGX)
Market Capitalization (US$) 476,248K
Revenue 66,772K
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.140
P/E Ratio 8.096
Dividend Yield 0.000%
Avg. Daily Share Volume (last 5 days) 1,798K
5DN - EZRA HLDGS (SGX)
Market Capitalization (US$) 792,736K
Revenue 156,833K
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.489
P/E Ratio 3.882
Dividend Yield 1.868%
Avg. Daily Share Volume (last 5 days) 1,052K
Recently energy related counter due to low valuation has started to be in focus for equity growth due to booming in these sectors. DBS group research for mid cap stock pick has rank them into top 5 stock pick. Technical rebound for oil in correlation with this energy related counter will boost up these counter. Swiber due for report on 13 aug, will be updating the earning reports.
Market Capitalization (US$) 367,730K
Revenue 402,700K
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.281
P/E Ratio 7.236
Dividend Yield 2.956%
Avg. Daily Share Volume (last 5 days) 522,800
AK3 - SWIBER HOLDINGS (SGX)
Market Capitalization (US$) 476,248K
Revenue 66,772K
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.140
P/E Ratio 8.096
Dividend Yield 0.000%
Avg. Daily Share Volume (last 5 days) 1,798K
5DN - EZRA HLDGS (SGX)
Market Capitalization (US$) 792,736K
Revenue 156,833K
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.489
P/E Ratio 3.882
Dividend Yield 1.868%
Avg. Daily Share Volume (last 5 days) 1,052K
Recently energy related counter due to low valuation has started to be in focus for equity growth due to booming in these sectors. DBS group research for mid cap stock pick has rank them into top 5 stock pick. Technical rebound for oil in correlation with this energy related counter will boost up these counter. Swiber due for report on 13 aug, will be updating the earning reports.
Swiber
Swiber has covered the gap at about 1.45. analyst is calling abuy at 1.40 and sell towards 1.87-2.00. Results should be withinexpectations. the correction in oil price is also seen to rebound soon.Rebound will boost energy related stocks.
Swiber unveiled its deepwater drilling team at its recent DeepwaterDrilling Open Forum, with its current projected revenue already are nearanal-syt expectation in 2008, will tomorrow result able to move swiber? Or wait for break out? Its accum/distrib, MA, didnt improve at all, RSIcontinue to be over sold, today opening result also not impressive.Downtrend still intact. Result may trigger the rebound.
Swiber unveiled its deepwater drilling team at its recent DeepwaterDrilling Open Forum, with its current projected revenue already are nearanal-syt expectation in 2008, will tomorrow result able to move swiber? Or wait for break out? Its accum/distrib, MA, didnt improve at all, RSIcontinue to be over sold, today opening result also not impressive.Downtrend still intact. Result may trigger the rebound.
Monday, August 11, 2008
110808
Asian Stocks Advance on Lower Commodities; Honda Motor Rises
By Chua Kong Ho
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks gained, led by banks and automakers, after the drop in commodity prices eased inflation concerns and boosted the outlook for profits.
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Bought Man Wah at 0.24
By Chua Kong Ho
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks gained, led by banks and automakers, after the drop in commodity prices eased inflation concerns and boosted the outlook for profits.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bought Man Wah at 0.24
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Happy National Day with Lower Commodities Price
Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the largest weekly gain since April, as retailers, manufacturers and transportation companies rallied on speculation lower commodity prices will boost profits.
Fuel Costs
After falling to a 2 1/2-year low on July 15, the benchmark for U.S. equities rebounded 6.7 percent. It's still down 12 percent this year as record fuel costs and bank losses stemming from the U.S. mortgage crisis prompted analysts to lower profit estimates.
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My fellow Singaporeans,
We celebrate National Day this year in a somewhat guarded mood. The last twelve months have been a period of economic uncertainty worldwide. Considering the external challenges, Singapore’s economic results are good. For the first half of the year, growth was 4.5%. For the whole year, we expect growth to be between 4 and 5%. We added 144,000 jobs in the first half, and unemployment remains low, at 2.3%.
EXTERNAL CHALLENGES
2 The US economy is still facing serious problems. The housing crisis is adding further stress to its financial system. US consumers are spending less, and that is affecting the whole global economy. The difficulties will probably drag on well into next year before getting better.
3 Singapore’s economy has so far been partly buffered, because we have been carried along by the vibrancy of the Asian region. But Asian economies are starting to feel the impact of America’s problems, and so are we. We must therefore prepare ourselves for a bumpy year ahead.
4 In Southeast Asia, ASEAN has become less prominent on the radar screen of investors, who are more focussed on opportunities in China and India. Several ASEAN countries are pre-occupied with domestic economic and political problems. However, all ASEAN countries know that we must work together resolutely as a group. Singapore will do our part. But we must also maintain our reputation in a turbulent region as an economy that is competitive, a society that is cohesive, and a government that is honest and competent.
5 Against this backdrop we have the problem of inflation, which I am sure is at the top of your minds. We are paying more for the food we eat, the electricity we use, the fuel for our cars, taxis and buses, and many other things too. We cannot prevent these prices from going up, when prices are rising worldwide, and we import all our energy and food. But we are lightening the burden on Singaporeans, through the Growth Dividends, U-Save, Workfare, Medifund and ComCare. These measures are aimed especially at the poor, the elderly, and the sick, but middle-income Singaporeans are getting something too, to help tide over this period.
6 Some government policies do raise the cost of living, like the GST and ERP increases. But they are essential; otherwise we would not do them: the GST allows us to finance Workfare and other schemes to help lower-income Singaporeans over the long term, and the ERP keeps our roads free flowing. Also please remember that the Government has given GST rebates and road tax reductions, which more than offset the cost increases for most citizens, especially the poor.
7 I know that Singaporeans wish that prices did not have to rise, or that these policies were not necessary. Unfortunately this is not possible. But we are doing the next best thing: to put in place effective relief measures, and provide the poor and needy with the help they need.
BUILDING FOR THE LONG-TERM
8 We must look beyond immediate problems like the cost of living, to understand what is happening in the world around us, discover new opportunities and tackle our longer-term challenges. Then we will strengthen ourselves and be more ready to deal with future crises. In particular, we need to develop our economy, reproduce our population and keep evolving our system to stay abreast of the changing world.
9 To achieve our aspirations, we must develop and grow. Unless we can create wealth, we will not have the resources to do anything else. Because we have pushed hard over the last few years when conditions were favourable, we can now look forward to many major projects: the Formula One Grand Prix, the integrated resorts, and huge manufacturing investments like the world’s largest solar cell plant. These projects will create many good jobs, and keep our momentum up despite the uncertainties ahead.
10 To upgrade our economy, we must invest in our people, especially through education. We are improving our polytechnics and ITEs, where most of our students go. We are also expanding university places. The Government has approved plans for a new publicly-funded university. Its campus will be in Changi, with good bus and train access from around the island. It will admit its first intake in 2011. This new university will open up more opportunities for Singaporeans to develop themselves and to advance.
11 To secure our long-term future, we also need enough babies to replace ourselves. Year by year, fewer Singaporeans are getting married, and those who do are having fewer children. We have implemented one measure after another over the years, but we have not succeeded in reversing the trend.
12 We have to take this very seriously. Marriage and parenthood are personal decisions. But we can create an environment where Singaporeans see them as a natural and important part of life, and where young couples get support in starting families. We have looked at this comprehensively and will take further steps to address the practical problems which couples face. I hope more Singaporeans will find fulfilment in bringing up children and setting up a happy family. Let us make Singapore a good home where citizens lead full, meaningful lives, and experience the joys of bringing up a new generation.
13 This new generation will grow up in a digital world. The Internet is transforming societies and economies everywhere. It will change the way we work, learn and live our lives. We must adapt ourselves to it, and use it to educate and engage our cyber-citizens. We will evolve our policies and rules, our economy and society, to take full advantage. We will continue to open up our system progressively. This is the right way to go. But we must also be careful to avoid the dangers that lurk in cyberspace, and learn to protect ourselves from them.
14 All these are long-term issues. Not many countries tackle such issues well. Sometimes, the politics forces the government to focus on fire-fighting, and ignore what happens after the next election. In other countries, “money politics” corrupts the whole system. Singapore is unique in having a clean and stable, responsible and responsive government. We have avoided the political turbulence that has engulfed several countries around us. We have not had strident protests from minority communities who feel unfairly treated. Nor have we had unruly demonstrations for all kinds of reasons real or imagined. Instead we choose leaders on merit, build trust between leaders and the people, and work together for the good of all Singaporeans. This is how Singapore has outperformed other countries.
15 As we open up, we must preserve these strengths. Please understand that all freedoms come with responsibilities to uphold social stability and security. Then Singapore will stay attractive to investors, our economy will keep growing, and we can continue achieving the best for our nation.
CONCLUSION
16 Despite the uncertainties in our region, and in the world economy, Singapore is in a strong position. In good times and bad, we have stayed united, looked over the horizon, and moved carefully but resolutely forward.
17 On this anniversary of our independence, let us take pride in our achievements, tackle the challenges together and continue to build an even better and more vibrant Singapore.
18 I wish all Singaporeans a Happy National Day
Fuel Costs
After falling to a 2 1/2-year low on July 15, the benchmark for U.S. equities rebounded 6.7 percent. It's still down 12 percent this year as record fuel costs and bank losses stemming from the U.S. mortgage crisis prompted analysts to lower profit estimates.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My fellow Singaporeans,
We celebrate National Day this year in a somewhat guarded mood. The last twelve months have been a period of economic uncertainty worldwide. Considering the external challenges, Singapore’s economic results are good. For the first half of the year, growth was 4.5%. For the whole year, we expect growth to be between 4 and 5%. We added 144,000 jobs in the first half, and unemployment remains low, at 2.3%.
EXTERNAL CHALLENGES
2 The US economy is still facing serious problems. The housing crisis is adding further stress to its financial system. US consumers are spending less, and that is affecting the whole global economy. The difficulties will probably drag on well into next year before getting better.
3 Singapore’s economy has so far been partly buffered, because we have been carried along by the vibrancy of the Asian region. But Asian economies are starting to feel the impact of America’s problems, and so are we. We must therefore prepare ourselves for a bumpy year ahead.
4 In Southeast Asia, ASEAN has become less prominent on the radar screen of investors, who are more focussed on opportunities in China and India. Several ASEAN countries are pre-occupied with domestic economic and political problems. However, all ASEAN countries know that we must work together resolutely as a group. Singapore will do our part. But we must also maintain our reputation in a turbulent region as an economy that is competitive, a society that is cohesive, and a government that is honest and competent.
5 Against this backdrop we have the problem of inflation, which I am sure is at the top of your minds. We are paying more for the food we eat, the electricity we use, the fuel for our cars, taxis and buses, and many other things too. We cannot prevent these prices from going up, when prices are rising worldwide, and we import all our energy and food. But we are lightening the burden on Singaporeans, through the Growth Dividends, U-Save, Workfare, Medifund and ComCare. These measures are aimed especially at the poor, the elderly, and the sick, but middle-income Singaporeans are getting something too, to help tide over this period.
6 Some government policies do raise the cost of living, like the GST and ERP increases. But they are essential; otherwise we would not do them: the GST allows us to finance Workfare and other schemes to help lower-income Singaporeans over the long term, and the ERP keeps our roads free flowing. Also please remember that the Government has given GST rebates and road tax reductions, which more than offset the cost increases for most citizens, especially the poor.
7 I know that Singaporeans wish that prices did not have to rise, or that these policies were not necessary. Unfortunately this is not possible. But we are doing the next best thing: to put in place effective relief measures, and provide the poor and needy with the help they need.
BUILDING FOR THE LONG-TERM
8 We must look beyond immediate problems like the cost of living, to understand what is happening in the world around us, discover new opportunities and tackle our longer-term challenges. Then we will strengthen ourselves and be more ready to deal with future crises. In particular, we need to develop our economy, reproduce our population and keep evolving our system to stay abreast of the changing world.
9 To achieve our aspirations, we must develop and grow. Unless we can create wealth, we will not have the resources to do anything else. Because we have pushed hard over the last few years when conditions were favourable, we can now look forward to many major projects: the Formula One Grand Prix, the integrated resorts, and huge manufacturing investments like the world’s largest solar cell plant. These projects will create many good jobs, and keep our momentum up despite the uncertainties ahead.
10 To upgrade our economy, we must invest in our people, especially through education. We are improving our polytechnics and ITEs, where most of our students go. We are also expanding university places. The Government has approved plans for a new publicly-funded university. Its campus will be in Changi, with good bus and train access from around the island. It will admit its first intake in 2011. This new university will open up more opportunities for Singaporeans to develop themselves and to advance.
11 To secure our long-term future, we also need enough babies to replace ourselves. Year by year, fewer Singaporeans are getting married, and those who do are having fewer children. We have implemented one measure after another over the years, but we have not succeeded in reversing the trend.
12 We have to take this very seriously. Marriage and parenthood are personal decisions. But we can create an environment where Singaporeans see them as a natural and important part of life, and where young couples get support in starting families. We have looked at this comprehensively and will take further steps to address the practical problems which couples face. I hope more Singaporeans will find fulfilment in bringing up children and setting up a happy family. Let us make Singapore a good home where citizens lead full, meaningful lives, and experience the joys of bringing up a new generation.
13 This new generation will grow up in a digital world. The Internet is transforming societies and economies everywhere. It will change the way we work, learn and live our lives. We must adapt ourselves to it, and use it to educate and engage our cyber-citizens. We will evolve our policies and rules, our economy and society, to take full advantage. We will continue to open up our system progressively. This is the right way to go. But we must also be careful to avoid the dangers that lurk in cyberspace, and learn to protect ourselves from them.
14 All these are long-term issues. Not many countries tackle such issues well. Sometimes, the politics forces the government to focus on fire-fighting, and ignore what happens after the next election. In other countries, “money politics” corrupts the whole system. Singapore is unique in having a clean and stable, responsible and responsive government. We have avoided the political turbulence that has engulfed several countries around us. We have not had strident protests from minority communities who feel unfairly treated. Nor have we had unruly demonstrations for all kinds of reasons real or imagined. Instead we choose leaders on merit, build trust between leaders and the people, and work together for the good of all Singaporeans. This is how Singapore has outperformed other countries.
15 As we open up, we must preserve these strengths. Please understand that all freedoms come with responsibilities to uphold social stability and security. Then Singapore will stay attractive to investors, our economy will keep growing, and we can continue achieving the best for our nation.
CONCLUSION
16 Despite the uncertainties in our region, and in the world economy, Singapore is in a strong position. In good times and bad, we have stayed united, looked over the horizon, and moved carefully but resolutely forward.
17 On this anniversary of our independence, let us take pride in our achievements, tackle the challenges together and continue to build an even better and more vibrant Singapore.
18 I wish all Singaporeans a Happy National Day
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Unemployment Claims increase 7000
Jobless Claims
Every major industry group in the S&P 500 dropped as a bigger-than-forecast increase in jobless claims also sent stocks lower. Initial unemployment claims increased by 7,000 to 455,000 in the week ended Aug. 2, the most since March 2002.
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Average companies reported lower 7.2% profit
In aggregate, results at the 414 companies that have reported fell short of analyst estimates by 7.2 percent. That's worse than in the first quarter, when aggregate profit missed the estimates by 2.7 percent.
Consumer discretionary profits missed estimates by 72 percent, led by larger-than-expected losses at General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. Financial companies earned 60 percent less than analysts estimated. American Express Co., the biggest U.S. credit card company, missed the average estimate by 32 percent on July 22.
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Bought YZJ at 0.675, bought between short or mid term for averaging down or sell on rally. I believe we will be making new march low with more bad news unfolding, the myth of national day rally on my own opinion will still depends on HSI , Nikkei, DJ and news media.
Every major industry group in the S&P 500 dropped as a bigger-than-forecast increase in jobless claims also sent stocks lower. Initial unemployment claims increased by 7,000 to 455,000 in the week ended Aug. 2, the most since March 2002.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average companies reported lower 7.2% profit
In aggregate, results at the 414 companies that have reported fell short of analyst estimates by 7.2 percent. That's worse than in the first quarter, when aggregate profit missed the estimates by 2.7 percent.
Consumer discretionary profits missed estimates by 72 percent, led by larger-than-expected losses at General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. Financial companies earned 60 percent less than analysts estimated. American Express Co., the biggest U.S. credit card company, missed the average estimate by 32 percent on July 22.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bought YZJ at 0.675, bought between short or mid term for averaging down or sell on rally. I believe we will be making new march low with more bad news unfolding, the myth of national day rally on my own opinion will still depends on HSI , Nikkei, DJ and news media.
Subprime Affecting World Largest Insurer
U.S. Stocks Retreat on AIG's Loss, Wal-Mart's Sales Forecast
By Elizabeth Stanton
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for first time in three days after American International Group Inc.'s unexpected loss dragged down financial shares and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s forecast for slower sales growth sent retailers lower.
AIG, the world's largest insurer, slumped the most since at least 1980 as subprime-related writedowns wiped out profit and spurred concern the company will need to raise more capital. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Freddie Mac also dropped, pushing financial shares to the steepest declines in the S&P 500. Wal-Mart, the biggest retailer, tumbled the most in a year.
By Elizabeth Stanton
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for first time in three days after American International Group Inc.'s unexpected loss dragged down financial shares and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s forecast for slower sales growth sent retailers lower.
AIG, the world's largest insurer, slumped the most since at least 1980 as subprime-related writedowns wiped out profit and spurred concern the company will need to raise more capital. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Freddie Mac also dropped, pushing financial shares to the steepest declines in the S&P 500. Wal-Mart, the biggest retailer, tumbled the most in a year.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
050808
World's largest mining company and Australia's No. 1 oil producer, dropped as copper plunged to the lowest in six months indicated something might be coming as i always hear, saw articles related to economy.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The stockpiles in copper follow a eight year cycle. For approximately four years the stockpile deplete to very low inventory and then it rises back to new record highs. The cycles lead the inverse copper price cycles by a year or so. In early 2003 copper stockpile peaked and then in early 2006 it got depleted to lowest levels. The cycle is systematic since 1920. It seems this time also it is no different.
Copper predicts the world economy well in advance. Interestingly, every time copper stockpiles make tops, these are new higher highs. For example the stockpile high in 2003 was higher than in 1999-2000 and that in turn was higher than in 1993. This really means the higher copper price brings in enormous amount of copper in recycling and copper stockpiles is bigger than ever.
If that happens, copper can fall below $1.00 per pound. What is more important is that fall in copper price is always accompanied with global recessions. The stockpiles go low during the economic boom and go high during the economic slowdown. The cyclic behavior of copper stockpile and the price show that economic recession or depression may be very near.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am a little caution in todays market as normally i would look out for counters for cherry picking but the drop in copper price worries me.
Tonight will slightly be predictable as many feel the rate will stay unchange at 2% but well it might surprise us if it change.
Shipping counter has been downgraded to hold and sell, popular blue chip cosco and yang zi jiang hit new 52wk low, reason concern on slow growth and supply plentiful. It is extremely funny these analyst few weeks back gave out-perform rating to these counter for target price 12month and few weeks later downgrade it? Perhaps anyone could enlighten me how one view changes so fast?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The stockpiles in copper follow a eight year cycle. For approximately four years the stockpile deplete to very low inventory and then it rises back to new record highs. The cycles lead the inverse copper price cycles by a year or so. In early 2003 copper stockpile peaked and then in early 2006 it got depleted to lowest levels. The cycle is systematic since 1920. It seems this time also it is no different.
Copper predicts the world economy well in advance. Interestingly, every time copper stockpiles make tops, these are new higher highs. For example the stockpile high in 2003 was higher than in 1999-2000 and that in turn was higher than in 1993. This really means the higher copper price brings in enormous amount of copper in recycling and copper stockpiles is bigger than ever.
If that happens, copper can fall below $1.00 per pound. What is more important is that fall in copper price is always accompanied with global recessions. The stockpiles go low during the economic boom and go high during the economic slowdown. The cyclic behavior of copper stockpile and the price show that economic recession or depression may be very near.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am a little caution in todays market as normally i would look out for counters for cherry picking but the drop in copper price worries me.
Tonight will slightly be predictable as many feel the rate will stay unchange at 2% but well it might surprise us if it change.
Shipping counter has been downgraded to hold and sell, popular blue chip cosco and yang zi jiang hit new 52wk low, reason concern on slow growth and supply plentiful. It is extremely funny these analyst few weeks back gave out-perform rating to these counter for target price 12month and few weeks later downgrade it? Perhaps anyone could enlighten me how one view changes so fast?
Monday, August 4, 2008
Best Form Of Investment (SPC)
SINGAPORE PETROLEUM CO LTD
Market Capitalization (USD) 2,442M
Revenue 8,766M
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.963
P/E Ratio 6.716
Dividend Yield 9.274%
At current price of $6.41, potential downside with correlation with crude oil price is there, will be entering at $6. Strategy will be slightly different will be holding SPC for long term.
Founded in 1969, SPC has grown from a predominantly homegrown company to a regional player with presence in Australia, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Today, SPC is an integrated oil and gas company boasting business activities which include oil and gas exploration and production, gas pipelines, refining, terminalling and distribution, marketing, trading and sale of refined products. To achieve a more integrated business portfolio, SPC diversified into the upstream sector in 2000. Towards this strategic goal, SPC successfully acquired upstream assets in the Asia-Pacific region. Its acquisitions have good exploration potential and are geared towards enhancing the Company’s production base to support SPC’s long-term growth. SPC holds a 50% interest in the Singapore Refining Company Private Limited (SRC), a world-class refinery with a nameplate capacity of 290,000 barrels per day. SRC resides on Jurong Island, the petrochemical hub of Singapore. SRC maintains its reputation as a supplier of quality refined petroleum products through continuous upgrading of its capabilities. SPC was one of the first companies in Singapore to be granted Approved Global Trader status. Its oil trading activities include the buying and selling of crudes, feedstocks and products to an established network of customers.
Market Capitalization (USD) 2,442M
Revenue 8,766M
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.963
P/E Ratio 6.716
Dividend Yield 9.274%
At current price of $6.41, potential downside with correlation with crude oil price is there, will be entering at $6. Strategy will be slightly different will be holding SPC for long term.
Founded in 1969, SPC has grown from a predominantly homegrown company to a regional player with presence in Australia, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Today, SPC is an integrated oil and gas company boasting business activities which include oil and gas exploration and production, gas pipelines, refining, terminalling and distribution, marketing, trading and sale of refined products. To achieve a more integrated business portfolio, SPC diversified into the upstream sector in 2000. Towards this strategic goal, SPC successfully acquired upstream assets in the Asia-Pacific region. Its acquisitions have good exploration potential and are geared towards enhancing the Company’s production base to support SPC’s long-term growth. SPC holds a 50% interest in the Singapore Refining Company Private Limited (SRC), a world-class refinery with a nameplate capacity of 290,000 barrels per day. SRC resides on Jurong Island, the petrochemical hub of Singapore. SRC maintains its reputation as a supplier of quality refined petroleum products through continuous upgrading of its capabilities. SPC was one of the first companies in Singapore to be granted Approved Global Trader status. Its oil trading activities include the buying and selling of crudes, feedstocks and products to an established network of customers.
Best Form Of Investment
Crude oil has been the most essential of industrial revolution today, Crude oil and energy related product the key point to achieve fast pace of growth. In economic theory the demand for energy continue to rise, more so for developing countries. China and india has been progressing tremendously for the past decade i would not be surprise if they were the major power in times to come. The key point i would highlight is energy supply, for crude oil the supply is limited, The most common distillations of petroleum are as various diesel fuel, gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, LPG. Other derivative are alkenes that can made into plastic, lubricant, wax, petroleum coke etc I would not be surprise crude oil will rise to $200 per barrel in the next 5 years as easy extraction of crude oil become unavailable.
Today i will touch on few counter in STI that i am interested for long term investment.
CHINA ENERGY
Market Capitalization (USD) 426,151K
Revenue 680,124K
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.223
P/E Ratio 10.62
It is listed in STI index in 12/12/06 at a IPO price at $1.06, at current price of $0.46. Not vested will enter if price below $0.35-$0.4 will be holding until the next economic cycle.
China Energy Limited (China Energy) is a producer of dimethyl ether (DME). Most of the Company's DME is sold to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) distributors, who blend it with LPG, and such fuel blend is then sold to end-consumers for household and industrial uses.
Today i will touch on few counter in STI that i am interested for long term investment.
CHINA ENERGY
Market Capitalization (USD) 426,151K
Revenue 680,124K
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.223
P/E Ratio 10.62
It is listed in STI index in 12/12/06 at a IPO price at $1.06, at current price of $0.46. Not vested will enter if price below $0.35-$0.4 will be holding until the next economic cycle.
China Energy Limited (China Energy) is a producer of dimethyl ether (DME). Most of the Company's DME is sold to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) distributors, who blend it with LPG, and such fuel blend is then sold to end-consumers for household and industrial uses.
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